Sellers' inflation, profits and conflict: why can large firms hike prices in an emergency?

The dominant view of inflation holds that it is macroeconomic in origin and must always be tackled with macroeconomic tightening. In contrast, we argue that the US COVID-19 inflation is predominantly a sellers' inflation that derives from microeconomic origins, namely the ability of firms with market power to hike prices. Such firms are price makers, but they only engage in price hikes if they expect their competitors to do the same. This requires an implicit agreement which can be coordinated by sector-wide cost shocks and supply bot-tlenecks. We review the long-standing literature on price-setting in concentrated markets and survey earnings calls and compile firm-level data to derive a three-stage heuristic of the inflationary process: (1) Rising prices in systemically significant upstream sectors due to commodity market dynamics or bottlenecks create windfall profits and provide an impulse for further price hikes. (2) To protect profit margins from rising costs, downstream sectors propagate, or in cases of temporary monopolies due to bottlenecks, amplify price pressures. (3) Labor responds by trying to fend off real wage declines in the conflict stage. We argue that such sellers' inflation generates a general price rise which may be transitory, but can also lead to self-sustaining inflationary spirals under certain conditions. Policy should aim to contain price hikes at the impulse stage to prevent inflation from the onset.

From the Bretton Woods system to the global non-system: The trials and tribulations of slow learning

In this paper we analyse why an understanding of the global ‘non-system', in which we now live, took so long to arrive after the Bretton Woods system collapsed in 1971. We first describe how knowledge of how an inflation-targeting regime would operate—what we call ‘Taylor-rule macroeconomics'—was only gradually created during the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s. We then describe how, subsequent to this, an awareness emerged, also gradually, of how the international non-system might work, depending, as it does, on Taylor-rule macroeconomics being already in place. We then discuss the Great Moderation, making clear that a well-functioning global non-system would require not just inflation targeting and floating exchange rates in each country, but also adequate fiscal discipline, and a satisfactory form of financial regulation. We describe how a well-functioning version of this global non-system would actually fit together. We then discuss how this non-system has responded to two enormous challenges of the last 15 years, namely the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid pandemic. This discussion of what has happened in the recent past provides the background to a discussion, in the companion paper by Subacchi and Vines in this issue of the Oxford Review of Economic Policy, of the challenges that the global non-system will face in the future. © The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press.

The Course of the Russian Ruble Exchange Rate During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Trends and Influencing Factors

This article analyzes the impact of the following major factors influencing the Russian ruble exchange rate: oil prices, inflation, the balance of payments flows, and volatility, which are all considered against the background of the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis reveals that all these factors continued to play a role in 2020, though the shock of the pandemic exhibited certain specific features.

Real Estate Insights The continuing uncertainty of property investment markets – an outlook for the UK in 2023

PurposeThe aim of this Real Estate Insight is to comment upon the outlook for real estate investment in the United Kingdom (UK) at the beginning of 2023 in light of global inflation brought about by the pent-up post-pandemic demand push for goods and services and the exacerbation of the Ukraine/Russia conflict.Design/methodology/approachThis Real Estate Insight will comment upon changes in the investor's view of the UK economy and the relative attractiveness of the different property sectors and the shift in thinking post-pandemic.FindingsThis paper will consider a number of scenarios and possibilities flowing from the current uncertainties in the property market and the wider economy.Practical implicationsAs with all property investment, the value and performance of the property assets is interlinked with the use and demand of different property types. Understanding the supply and demand drivers provides investors with a reasoned conjecture of how the property market may perform going forward.Originality/valueThis is a review of the UK market in relation to post-COVID-19 changes to supply and demand at both an operational and investment level.

ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF MACROPRUDENTIAL AND MACROPRUDENTIAL INDICATORS ON THE STOCK PRICE INDEX OF ISLAMIC BANKS IN INDONESIA USING THE ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

The experience of various crises that have occurred, including the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, presents a challenge to implement macroprudential policies to ensure the financial system survives and continues to carry out its function in driving the economy. The existing macroprudential policies tend to be individual and focus on prudent banking and other financial institutions. Economic fluctuations that occur on the macro side will greatly impact, either directly or indirectly, the stock price index, as well as the company's internal indicators which are considered to have a major influence on the decisions of investors and potential investors to take action on the stock exchange. The type of research used in this research is quantitative research. The nature of this research is descriptive with a quantitative approach. The data collection technique in this research is Literature Study. The test carried out in this study is the multiple linear regression analysis test (multiple linear regression method), this study uses the ECM model to obtain the best model which includes the classical assumption test. The results of this study based on the partial short-term relationship test, it can be concluded that the Exchange Rate, Inflation, and TPF in the short term have no significant effect on the PNBS Stock Price Index. Meanwhile, short-term CAR has a significant positive effect on the PNBS Stock Price Index. Based on the results of the partial long-term relationship test, it can be concluded that in the long term, the Exchange Rate has a significant negative effect and TPF and CAR have a significant positive effect on the PNBS Stock Price Index while Inflation has no significant effect on the PNBS Stock Price Index. Based on the output results of the simultaneous short-term and long-term F test, it shows that all independent variables simultaneously have a significant effect on the PNBS Stock Price Index in the short term. Based on the provisions of the MUI DSN through the issued fatwas related to the Sharia capital market and Sharia shares, it is explained that Sharia stock investment to invest according to the perspective of Sharia economic law is allowed. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Jurnal Syntax Admiration is the property of Ridwan Institute and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Strong impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on fetal development and chromosomal abnormalities

Background/Objectives: To date, not many studies have been conducted to examine the role of COVID-19 on gestation and fetal development. During COVID-19, pregnant women had difficulty accessing prenatal screening and care due to pandemics restrictions and lockdowns. In this retrospective study we aimed to assess the effect of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak on fetal development in both prenatal and postnatal outcomes pre-and pre-COVID-19 pandemics in Northern Cyprus. Method(s): A total number of 61 aborted materials were karyotyped during the pre-pandemic period (January 2017 and March 2020) whereas 24 samples were analysed during the peripandemic period (March 2020-November 2021). On the other hand, 25 new-borns blood samples during the pre-pandemic and 44 samples during the pre-pandemic period were analysed. Result(s): No statistically significant difference found in health and abnormal aborted material karyotypes between two periods. On the other hand, a statistical significance was observed in postnatal chromosomal abnormalities (P = 0.04) after two long pandemic lockdowns, which are known as the first and the second waves, dramatically indicating that no baby with Down syndrome was between 2017-2020 whereas seven babies with Down Syndrome were born as consequences of without taking precaution against lockdowns. Conclusion(s): Overall, prenatal care is failed which resulting increased postnatal chromosomal abnormality due to heavy flight restrictions, economic inflation instability, limited access to medical services during COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns in Northern Cyprus.

COVID-19 and Its Implications on Agriculture, Environment, and Water Sectors

The advent of COVID-19 had implications for various sectors of the economy, compounding the challenges set in motion by climate change. Whilst the dawn of 2021 came with hope for recovery from the pandemic, the beginning of 2022 came with another complexity of the Russia-Ukraine war, which hampered recovery efforts. This book examines the trends, dynamics, and implications of COVID-19 for agriculture, environment, and water sectors within the broader context of Sustainable Development Goals using a cocktail of primary and secondary research techniques. The book adopts the quantitative, qualitative, and multi-methods of enquiry. Findings show the increasing temporal trend of COVID-19 cases following periodic waves and spatially variable distribution of cases, with more cases in densely populated urban areas. These trends and dynamics, influenced by a web of intermingling factors, have had ramifications on the agricultural, environmental, and water sectors and subsectors with consequent negative outcomes on virtually all facets of life. The recovery process is being hampered by several factors ranging from poor governance, which results in policy distortions and other global factors. Climate change and the Russia- Ukraine war have complicated the COVID-19 recovery process by pushing up oil and food prices, rendering the poor more vulnerable to food insecurity and increased poverty, challenging Zimbabwe's economic resilience. Social safety nets and tackling climate change and other policy distortions are critical to ensure a sustainable future. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023.

Two Major Economic Crises in the Early Twenty-First Century and their Impact on Central Bank Independence

Two major economic crises in the early twenty-first century have had a serious impact on monetary policy and CB independence. Disruption in financial intermediation and associated deflationary pressures caused by the global financial crisis of 2007–2009 and European financial crisis of 2010–2015 pushed central banks (CBs) in major currency areas towards adoption of unconventional monetary policy measures, including large-scale purchase of government bonds (quantitative easing). The same approach has been taken by CBs in response to the COVID-19 crisis in 2020 even if the characteristics of this crisis differ from the previous one. As a result of both crises, CBs have become major holders of government bonds and de facto – main creditors of governments. Against rapidly deteriorating fiscal balances, CBs have become hostages of fiscal policies, which compromises their independence. Risks to the CB independence also come from their additional mandates (beyond price stability) and populist political pressures.

The Unintended Consequences of COVID-19 Economic Responses on First Home Buyers? Evidence from New South Wales, Australia

As in many other nations, the Australian Government implemented monetary and fiscal policies in response to the COVID-19 pandemic to aid economic recovery. Among these policies were specific measures to assist first home buyers (FHBs) in entering the housing market. However, these unprecedented economic policies might have other direct and indirect implications on FHBs, which have yet to be thoroughly explored in the literature. To fill this gap, through a survey, we collected information via public and online mortgage broker platforms from 61 FHBs who successfully entered the housing market or were actively searching during the pandemic. The results found COVID-19 economic responses counterproductive for FHBs, pushing them to a more disadvantaged position due to an overheated property market. In addition, since the onset of the pandemic, property prices have risen significantly, exacerbating housing inequality as FHBs increasingly rely on intergenerational family support, take on more financial risk, and relocate to regional areas due to fear of missing out. The study highlights the need for macroeconomists and housing policymakers to consider these unintended consequences in formulating policies that minimise the adverse effects of economic stimulus measures.

Evidence of Inflation Using Harmonized Consumer Price Indices in Some Euro Countries: France, Germany, Italy, and Spain, along with the Euro Zone

This paper deals with the analysis of the persistence in the Harmonized Indices of Consumer Prices in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. The degree of persistence is measured through fractional integration or I (d) techniques, using monthly data from January 2010 to February 2023. We first conducted the analysis with data ending in December 2019, that is, with data prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Then, we extended the sample, first up to December 2021 and finally to February 2023. Our results show that the findings of our series are highly persistent, with values of the differencing parameter about one or higher than one in the majority of cases. In fact, mean reversion is only observed in the case of Germany with pre-pandemic data. Generally, we observed an increase in the degree of persistence of the series as a consequence of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war, with the only exception being Spain, where we observe a reduction in the order of integration when including 2022–2023 data. © 2023 by the authors.

South African inflation modelling using bootstrapped long short-term memory methods.

Inflation is a critical economic series, and proper targeting is required for a stable economy. With the current economic conditions that the world has faced as a result of COVID-19, understanding the effects of this on economies is critical because it will guide policies. Recent research on South African inflation has focused on statistical modelling, specifically the ARFIMA, GARCH, and GJR-GARCH models. In this study, we extend this into deep learning and use the MSE, RMSE, RSMPE, MAE, and MAPE to assess performance. To test which model has better forecasts, we use the Diebold-Mariano test. According to the findings of this study, clustered bootstrap LSTM models outperform the previously used ARFIMA-GARCH and ARFIMA-GJR-GARCH models.

Reflections on teaching and learning during the omicron wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and economic inflation.

The pandemic and the rising living costs have affected teaching and learning practices. These changes have impacted teaching faculty and students alike. This article is an analytical reflection of our experiences of teaching and learning during the omicron wave of the pandemic and rising economic inflation. This paper highlights some of our key observations. The reflective process has challenged some of our preconceptions. It has also helped highlight some questions and contradictions on teaching and learning in this context which may provide a reference for future research.

Pass-through with volatile exchange rates and inflation targeting

As central banks struggle against high inflation in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in the Ukraine, it is essential to understand the open economy aspects of inflation determination. Using a Bayesian VAR with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility, we analyze the behavior of pass-through across time and in relation to macroeconomic variables. Pass-through increases with the size of the volatility of the exchange rate and the level, variance and persistence of shocks to domestic prices, which is in line with theory. The persistence of exchange rate shocks is associated with higher pass-through only for observations with low inflation. Furthermore, the effect of inflation persistence on pass-through is much higher for exchange rate appreciations than for depreciations.

Accelerating inflation expectations of households in the euro area: sources and macroeconomic spending consequences

In 2021 and 2022, inflation expectations of households in the euro area rose dramatically. Based on a time-series investigation from 1995 to 2022, I find that inflation expectations are driven by current price developments of three consumption product categories and house prices (which are not included in the consumer price index). About half of the recent rise was fuelled by energy prices, 20% by food prices, over 10% by transportation costs and almost 20% by house prices. On a macro-level, controlling for a standard set of spending determinants, a regression analysis suggests that accelerating inflation expectations in general will slow down growth of area wide real private consumption, but under circumstances of low nominal interest rates helped to cushion the negative shock of the covid pandemic and the energy crisis.

Retail trader pricing behavior in the traditional rice market: A micro view for curbing inflation

The price of rice at the retail level affects consumer welfare and influences inflation. The research objective was to study rice retail trader pricing behavior in traditional markets. This study employed an econometric model consisting of six equations of price spread between the retail market level and wholesale level of different rice qualities and grades. To overcome endogeneity problems due to the use of several equations that could cause potential bias, the simultaneous method with the 3SLS approach was deemed appropriate to use to obtain consistent and efficient coefficient estimates. The results show that, by examining the behavior of price spreads in the model, it can be deduced that rice retailers in the traditional market applied a price stabilization strategy. A lower price spread responded to an increase in price at the wholesale level. Rice retailers in traditional markets also implemented a price-averaging strategy. The results of this study have important policy implications for reducing food price volatility and its impact on inflation. That is, a price policy aimed at price stabilization at the retail level, as in this study, will be more effective if the price stabilization is focused on the wholesale level. However, if the pricing policy continues to be applied at the retail level, it must consider the relationships between different rice qualities and prices. This study also highlights the need for more intensive research on pricing behavior at the wholesale level.

Does inflation trigger early repayment on Covid-19 UK guaranteed loans?

The UK government underwrote more than 1.68 million business loans totalling 78.4bn pound during the COVID-19 pandemic. Given that the Bounce Back Loan (BBL) had a 100% guarantee and the Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme (CBILS) 80%, the public sector contingent liability is very large. In this article, we explore whether or not the recent and dramatic rises in UK inflation have prompted firms with COVID-19 BBL and CBILS guaranteed loans to repay their outstanding debt early (in advance of the full 6-year loan term as specified in the original loan agreement). Our results show that this was indeed the case with increasing inflation exerting a strong and positive effect on early loan repayment on both guarantee schemes. This is consistent with the firm's debt aversion and a desire to reduce existing debts in anticipation of a future economic recession, liquidity problems and high interest rates.

US post-COVID Economic Recovery and the Fed's Monetary Policy Mistakes

This paper argues that the persistent inflation in the U.S. during the post-COVID economic recovery was mainly the result of the Fed's policy mistake caused by an overestimation of the negative output gap. The paper shows that after a two-quarter contraction, the U.S. economy quickly rebounded and outpaced its potential output, thus remaining in overheating territory. However, policymakers prolonged the monetary expansion beyond the necessary, which contributed to fuel inflation for a more prolonged time. The policy mistake was the result of an inaccurate estimation of potential output. Based on an alternative estimation that uses full employment as a condition, this paper shows that the U.S. economy has been running with a positive output gap since mid-2021. The results illustrate that the Federal Reserve was well-behind the curve in an economy in overexpansion and with a galloping inflation escalating well-above the target.

Can treasury inflation-protected securities safeguard investors from outward risk spillovers? A portfolio hedging strategy through the prism of COVID-19

Documenting the interlinkages among assets that are widely used to hedge against inflation is crucial for investors, as the necessity to protect the investment portfolio is stronger under inflationary conditions. For this purpose, we investigate the volatility spillovers between treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) and a battery of other assets perceived as inflation hedges, including bonds, gold, real estate, oil and equities. The applied methodology comprehends the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) extension of the Diebold and Yilmaz (Int J Forecast 28:57–66, 2012, 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.02.006) approach for the period 1/1/2010–3/31/2022. Our results indicate that the assets under consideration are moderately interconnected and subjected to several exogenous shocks, such as the US–China trade war, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war. Furthermore, we assess the hedging effectiveness of TIPS against each asset by estimating hedge ratios and optimal portfolios weights, before and after the spread of COVID-19 pandemic, by using conditional variance estimations (DCC-GARCH). The empirical findings show that the short position in the volatility of TIPS is proved to be an excellent hedge for all the sampled assets, with the exception of short-term Treasury bonds, and their hedging ability was improved during COVID-19.

THE ECONOMY AND POLICY TRADE-OFFS

Good evening. It is a pleasure and an honour to be here at NIESR to give the annual Dow lecture. We are very lucky in the UK to have high-quality independent institutions such as NIESR focusing on the policy landscape, and in my time on the MPC I have always valued their commentary and research.

Household Savings and Negative Interest Rates

This paper analyses determinants of household savings in a model based on an extension of the disequilibrium savings theory. These extensions follow from the life-cycle, permanent-income and Ricardian-equivalence theories. Based on panel data of 20 countries from the period 2000–2020, fixed-effect least squares estimation procedures are used. The analysis provides evidence that negative interest rates lead to a statistically and economic significant increase in savings. This implies that stimulating household consumption with a monetary policy of negative interest rates is counter-productive. The positive effect of income uncertainty and lagged saving rates gets smaller for negative interest rates, weakening the support for the disequilibrium-savings theory. Larger government deficits increase savings even more when rates are negative, strengthening the Ricardian equivalence effect. The effect of negative interest on the predictions of the life-cycle and permanent-income theories is mixed.